In the last month leading up to the playoffs, the clear outlier is the Brewers, who became very hot, culminating in a very strong finish, winning 11 of their last 12 games. Another surprising result comes from the Red Sox; they had the best regular-season record but finished relatively cold, losing 5 of their last 10, which quickly relegated them to the peloton of average teams.
Can the Brewers win their first-ever World Series? The odds look good for them this year. I ran Monte Carlo simulations with both "dynamic" and "static" Elo ratings, aka "hot" and "cold", and although they produced different rankings, the bracket outcomes were identical.
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Elo_K = 0.08;
Elo_k = 11;
h_f_a = 0.03;
Probability of winning World Series:
Elo_state: dynamic
Runtime: 10 sec
Simulations: 119140
1: Milwaukee Brewers, 42.66%
2: Colorado Rockies, 11.36%
3: Houston Astros, 8.53%
4: Chicago Cubs, 8.07%
5: Cleveland Indians, 7.57%
6: New York Yankees, 7.19%
7: Los Angeles Dodgers, 6.2%
8: Oakland Athletics, 4.5%
9: Boston Red Sox, 3.27%
10: Atlanta Braves, 0.65%
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Probability of winning World Series:
Elo_state: static
Runtime: 10 sec
Simulations: 121221
1: Milwaukee Brewers, 54.19%
2: Houston Astros, 8.6%
3: Los Angeles Dodgers, 8.09%
4: Cleveland Indians, 7.77%
5: Colorado Rockies, 7.04%
6: New York Yankees, 4.6%
7: Chicago Cubs, 4.3%
8: Boston Red Sox, 3%
9: Oakland Athletics, 2.02%
10: Atlanta Braves, 0.39%
Note: the predictions in this post were published at 2018-10-02 7:35 pm EST.
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